巴西前部长：中国威胁谁了？

内容导航：

巴西前部长：中国威胁谁了？

中国最大的威胁是谁？

目前世界上，真正对中国构成威胁的，是不是只有美国俄罗斯？

当今我国的周边邻国谁对我们威胁较大

一、巴西前部长：中国威胁谁了？

导读

过去十年间，中国经济取得了长足发展，也为其他国家的发展提供了借鉴。这背后有哪些原因？近日，巴西前旅游部部长、现任清华大学教授福鑫（Alessandro Teixeira）做客中国日报《连线》栏目，带来他对中国发展和相关问题的解读。

中国的发展不是威胁

Q:China has achieved many economic milestones over the past decade, but the Western politicians' saying "China is a threat to the world" has followed all the way. What is your opinion on this?

过去十年间，中国经济取得了许多里程碑式的成就。与之相伴，西方政治家就“中国威胁论”喋喋不休。对于这个现象，您怎么看？

A:I think we need to analyze this statement very carefully. When you say "Western", I think it’s too heavy, it's not Western, maybe mainly it's America and some allied European countries. Because if you go to South America, nobody's talking about China being a threat. If you go to Africa, nobody is talking about it as a trap. People who tell you that or people who are vocal about that are from some countries in the Europe, not all of them, and then there's the United States. So the question is, a threat to whom?

我认为这个说法值得仔细分析。当你说“西方”的时候，我认为太广泛了。你所谓的“西方”，我认为不是西方，而主要是美国和其部分欧洲盟友。在南美，没人谈论中国是个威胁。非洲也没人讨论“债务陷阱”。一直拿“中国威胁论”来说事的，是少数几个欧洲国家，不是全部，以及美国。所以问题应该是，中国对谁产生了威胁？

Another question is, why is China a threat? Maybe because the United States doesn't want to compete with anybody else? And China represents, not because China wants to, but represents competition to the US in terms of technology, competition to the US in terms of production. So those are the main elements. I don't see China being a threat to anyone. China's foreign policy, respects sovereignty of every single country. China never invades, never declares war. We are talking about competition in a very narrow field, that is economics.

问题之二在于：为何说中国是一个威胁？或许是因为美国不想和其他国家竞争？不是中国想要去竞争，而是中国在科技、制造的实力使其被美国视为竞争对手。所以这些才是关键元素。我认为中国不会对任何国家产生威胁。中国的外交政策尊重每一个国家的主权。中国从不发起侵略，也从不对外宣战。我们所说的竞争仅限于特定的领域，就是经济领域。

And that's natural because China wants to achieve development. And when to achieve development, you need to have, as President Xi Jinping says, dual circulation, internal market, external market. And if competition is not good, I don't understand, because the United States loves to say that they want to have free competition. So let China compete in the international market, so I don't see a threat in any way. I can see competition, I can see China trying to gain the market.

但这是很自然的事，中国要发展，想要发展，就要如习近平主席所说，实现双循环，在外部和内部的市场有机循环起来。如果竞争不是好事，那让我不明白的是，为什么美国还总是喜欢自我标榜“自由竞争”？所以，让中国在国际市场上竞争，无论如何，我都不认为中国的发展是一种威胁，我看到的是竞争，是中国在努力争取市场。

“一带一路”倡议

不是中国的“马歇尔计划”

Q:The Diplomat compared China's BRI to the US's Marshall Plan in a 2016 article. What is your estimation of BRI?

《外交学者》杂志在一篇2016年的文章中将中国的“一带一路”倡议比作美国的马歇尔计划。您怎么看待“一带一路”倡议？

A:It's completely different. Marshall Plan is a plan for reconstruction and for economic fostering. BRI is not that.

“一带一路”倡议和马歇尔计划完全不同。马歇尔计划旨在战后重建和复苏经济。“一带一路”不是。

Many people would say that the Belt and Road Initiative is a Chinese initiative. Many people say that it’s a way for China to increase trade or increase investment outside. The way I see it is a little different. I see it as a cooperation platform.

许多人认为“一带一路”倡议是中国倡议。也有许多人说它是中国增长贸易、促进外部投资的方式。我的看法稍许不同。我认为“一带一路”倡议是一个合作平台。

So when we have Latin American countries and there's a discussion, how would Latin America take part in it? How could Latin America engage better? And again, the point that I'd like to stress is that Latin America can engage with many other countries other than China. Because China had the idea to create a platform, but China doesn't want to monopolize it and keep the Belt and Road Initiative to itself. No, it wants to spread around the world as a cooperation platform. You want to be part of BRI. That's fine. If you're not, it's okay. It's your option.

所以，当拉丁美洲国家加入了“一带一路”倡议后，当地就开始进行关于拉丁美洲国家如何参与该倡议的讨论，拉丁美洲国家怎样更好地参与进来？我想再次强调一点，这并不是只与中国打交道，因为中国只是创造了一个平台，中国并不希望一家独大，将“一带一路”倡议占为己有。不，中国是想向世界提供一个合作平台。你想要加入，那非常棒。你不想加入，没问题，你有选择的自由。

What I am saying is that if you're part of BRI, you would have enjoyed a club that can invest together, can do trade together, can share different cultural elements together, can participate in discussion of the digital economy, digital transformation, societal transformations. So that's the important point.

我想说的是，如果你是“一带一路”倡议的成员，你就好像加入了一个俱乐部，大家一起投资，一起贸易，一起分享不同文化，一起参与数字经济、数字转型、社会转型的讨论。这点非常重要。

I've heard people say many times, if you're part of the BRI, China will invest in you, will buy from you. No, that's not the case. China never said that. What China always said is that we are creating, we are sharing a vision of the world of humankind where we want development and prosperity. BRI is a tool that can help us to achieve that. China never said that the only tool is our tool. There is no need for these adjectives in the discussion. What we have in the discussion is something that could help the world.

我多次听到别人说，如果你参与共建“一带一路”，那么中国就会向你投资、向你买东西。不，并非如此。中国从来没说过这样的话。中国一直说我们要创建人类命运共同体，共同发展，共同繁荣。“一带一路”倡议就是帮我们实现它的工具。中国从没说过我们的工具是唯一的工具。这些话从没出现在讨论中。我们在讨论一些对世界有益的事情。

中美两国不会脱钩

Q:In the context of globalization, what is your opinion about the so-called China-US decoupling?

在全球化背景下，您如何看待所谓的“中美脱钩”？

A:In my opinion, it's very, very hard to have a decoupling. When you are the first and second economies, there is no possibility of decoupling. Why? Because you are integrated, not fully, in some value chains, in some supply chains, you are completely integrated.

在我看来，中美两国很难脱钩。两者作为世界第一大和第二大经济体，两者不可能做到脱钩。为什么呢？因为中美已经在一些价值链、供应链中相互融合，已经融合在一起。

But of course, if you are two largest economies in the world, there is no possibility of decoupling. So I think what the US Trade Representative says in Singapore is the right thing. You cannot divorce. You can realign, you can restrategize, but you cannot divorce. There is no such thing in decoupling. There is no such thing in decoupling in terms of macro economics. There is no such thing of decoupling in terms of technology. Because they are already integrated.

当然，作为世界上最大的两个经济体，两者不可能做到脱钩。所以，我赞同美国贸易代表戴琪在新加坡所说的话，中美两国不能脱钩。两个国家可能重新调整关系，可能重新部署规划，但是不可能脱钩。不存在脱钩，从宏观经济而言，脱钩不存在，从科技层面而言，脱钩也不存在，因为两国已经紧密结合。

It took a long time, almost two decades, three decades for this integration between the American economy and the Chinese economy. You can not just do it by a presidential order, say "now disappear", it's impossible. People that work with real economics know that. So one thing is the ideological or political use of this term, "decoupling". Another thing is the real economic meaning of decoupling. In the political arena, you can talk about that. But in practical terms, you can reduce but never decouple.

中美经济用了二三十年才达到了今天这种融合程度，现在仅凭一纸总统令就要中止合作，这是不可能的。从事实体经济的人都明白这点。“脱钩”在意识形态或政治上，与在实体经济中，有着不同的含义。在政治方面或许会有这方面的讨论，在实际情况中，融合或许会减少，但脱钩绝不可能发生。

中国发展的四大因素

Q:As former special advisor to the president of Brazil, what do you think of China's development?

作为前巴西总统顾问，你怎么看待中国的发展？

A:I think the root of China's objective, is to achieve development for its people. It's very important. It's not a dream, it's a reality. And I think China can do that because it has its unique system.

我认为中国发展目标的根基在于为人民谋发展。这一点非常重要。这不是梦，这是现实。我认为中国可以做到这点，因为它有独特的体制。

How can China get to that? I always say that there are some important elements. The first element that’s very critical is leadership. When the leadership takes a decision, that's taken seriously by everybody, by private sector, by media, by government. So you know the direction where you need to go.

中国如何实现发展？我一直说有几个重要因素。第一个关键因素是领导力。中国的领导层做出决策时，全民都认真参与其中，私有企业、媒体、政府都包括在内，所以你可以清楚了解国家的发展方向。

The second important element is education. I am doing a research, and I see that at least thirty percent of the income of families go to education. Not only formal education but after school, K12, everything. So that's very important. If you have money, you put money in education and that's different in Western society. Sometimes we take education for granted. We don't think that you need it. Many people say, because the competition in China is huge. But it doesn’t matter if he's in China or outside. You want to prepare. So the second element is education.

第二个因素，是教育。我在做一项调研，我发现中国家庭收入里，至少三成以上都投入到了教育之中。不仅是正规教育，还有课后辅导，基础教育等等。这很重要。中国家庭把钱花在教育上，这和西方社会不一样。西方人往往认为教育是理所当然的，不需要额外投入。很多人会说，这是因为中国的竞争压力很大。但无论在中国还是在国外，人都会面临竞争，人们总是希望有所准备。所以第二个因素是教育。

The third element is the faith that the population has in the government and in the system. The government plays an important role in terms of leadership, but plays a much more important role in terms of governance. So people understand where you want to go.

第三个因素是中国人对政府和体制的信念。政府发挥着重要的领导决策作用，也发挥着重要的治理职能。所以人们能了解政府的方向。

The fourth element I think, it's an important element, is the culture of Chinese people, is how they perceive the world. Not in the short run, but it's a long run.

第四个因素，我认为是很重要的一点，是中国的文化，是中国人民如何看待世界，不是只看眼前，而是长远规划。

I think those four elements are the elements that make China different than any other place around the world.

在我看来，这四个因素让中国不同于世界其他地区。

结语

Unique systems, solid education, firm faith in the government, and long-term vision are the four characteristics of China's path, in Professor Teixeira's observation. With its roots in Chinese soil, the country's path has proved suitable for China's culture and conditions. It has brought the Chinese people peaceful and fulfilled lives, and the Chinese nation lasting prosperity.

独特的体系、扎实的教育、人民对政府的坚定信念以及长远规划，是福鑫教授观察到的中国道路的四大特征。中国道路扎根于中国土壤，实践证明，它适应中国的文化和国情。它给中国百姓带来了安稳幸福的生活，也给国家带来了长富久安。

出品人：王浩

监制：柯荣谊 宋平

制片：张少伟 栾瑞英

记者：沈一鸣 张欣然 史雪凡 周星佐 刘源

实习生：吕红梅 钱昕瑀 王博麟 刘莹 孙伊茗 张奕杰

中国观察智库

中国日报新媒体中心

联合出品

来源：中国日报网

一、中国最大的威胁是谁？

日本。日本永远是中国的头号敌人，小日本一直都想占领中国，而且从没改变过。抵制日货不是毫无意义的，日本真正强大起来的时候，第一个倒霉的就是中国。我断言在未来的某天，日本还会发动对中国的侵略战争。小日本人不大，可心他妈的太大。抵制日货从我做起，忧国忧民从我做起！

二、目前世界上，真正对中国构成威胁的，是不是只有美国俄罗斯？

只有俄罗斯和美国两国可以对我国构成威胁，分别属于2极,美国1极.
俄罗斯空海军强,中国陆军导弹强.
美国是超级大国是一极
俄罗斯是综合国力强是一极
中国是人力第一,财力第二,军力第三,科教第四,也是一极
欧盟算一极,不过不是独立的国家

三、当今我国的周边邻国谁对我们威胁较大

第一个是日本，海军实力亚洲第一，历史因素就注定了这两个国家是永远不可能和平共处的，现在又有钓。鱼。岛、东海油气田等争端，真能挑动中国战争神经的非日本莫属
第二是俄罗斯，老毛子的阴险熟悉近代史的话应该都能了解了，从珍宝岛战争到挑拨新疆。独。立，而且实力远比日本强大，长远来说是中国最大的一个威胁，就看两国关系如何走向
第三是印度，以前两国就有过战争，但实力赶超中国还有难度
第四就是菲佣和越南猴子一类的南海小国，都是有岛屿争端的，这些到好说，随便打一仗就能杀鸡儆猴，都是些怕死鬼
50年之内，对中国威胁最大的应该还是日本